Predictive Model Forecasts Hurricane Impacts to Refineries

Jamie E. Padgett and Kendall M. Capshaw of Rice University discuss ways to better understand how weather impacts the oil industry.

The U.S. Gulf Coast is home to more than half of total U.S. refining capacity. But given the area&rsquo;s vulnerability to hurricanes, weather-related stoppages and slowdowns weigh heavily on the nation&rsquo;s supply of petroleum products.

Researchers at Rice University in Houston have proposed development of a predictive model for the likelihood and expected duration of refinery shutdowns under hurricane hazards. Their work is described in &ldquo;Development and Application of a Predictive Model for Estimating Refinery Shutdown Duration and Resilience Impacts Due to Hurricane Hazards,&rdquo; published in the September 2023 issue of the ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering.

To start off, how did the idea for this predictive model develop? Can you tell us about the initial stages of research and how this effort got moving?

Published in ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering

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Predictive Model Forecasts Hurricane Impacts to Refineries

Jamie E. Padgett and Kendall M. Capshaw of Rice University discuss ways to better understand how weather impacts the oil industry.

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